Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions

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[[File:Civics prediction.png|800px|center]]
[[File:Civics prediction.png|800px|center]]
<center>''last updated August 13, 2024''</center>
<center>''last updated August 15, 2024''</center>


==State highlights==
==State highlights==
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|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arizona
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arizona
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4976 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4968 (49.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5024 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5032 (50.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Florida
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Florida
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1657 (16.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|2368 (23.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8343 (83.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|7632 (76.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Georgia
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Georgia
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4963 (49.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4983 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5037 (50.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5017 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Iowa
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Iowa
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|441 (4.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|449 (4.5%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9559 (95.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9551 (95.5%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1095 (11.0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|906 (9.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8905 (89.0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9094 (90.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine At-Large
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine At-Large
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8046 (80.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8103 (81.0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|1954 (19.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|1897 (19.0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
⚫
|-
⚫
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Maine Second District
⚫
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|719 (7.2%)
⚫
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9281 (92.8%)
⚫
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Michigan
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Michigan
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5014 (50.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5094 (50.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4986 (49.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4906 (49.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Minnesota
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Minnesota
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7643 (76.4%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7691 (76.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2357 (23.6%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2309 (23.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nebraska Second District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nebraska Second District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5118 (51.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5186 (51.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4882 (48.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4814 (48.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Lean Harris
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Lean Harris
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nevada
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nevada
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5002 (50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5034 (50.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4998 (50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4966 (49.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Hampshire
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Hampshire
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|6693 (66.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|6690 (66.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|3307 (33.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|3310 (33.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Mexico
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Mexico
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7372 (73.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7426 (74.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2628 (26.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2574 (25.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|North Carolina
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|North Carolina
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4828 (48.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4801 (48%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5172 (51.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5199 (52%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Leans Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Leans Trump
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Pennsylvania
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Pennsylvania
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5018 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5031 (50.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4982 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4969 (49.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Texas
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Texas
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|594 (5.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|616 (6.2%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9406 (94.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9384 (93.8%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Virginia
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Virginia
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7471 (74.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7485 (74.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2529 (25.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2515 (25.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Wisconsin
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Wisconsin
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5016 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5019 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4984 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4981 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
|-
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*Odds of winning electoral college:
*Odds of winning electoral college:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 52.54%
**'''Kamala Harris''': 52.7%
**'''Donald Trump''': 46.81%
**'''Donald Trump''': 47.3%


*Odds of winning popular vote:
*Odds of winning popular vote:
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|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arizona
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arizona
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4976 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4968 (49.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5024 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5032 (50.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
|-
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|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Florida
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Florida
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1657 (16.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|2368 (23.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8343 (83.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|7632 (76.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Georgia
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Georgia
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4963 (49.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4983 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5037 (50.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5017 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
|-
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|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Iowa
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Iowa
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|441 (4.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|449 (4.5%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9559 (95.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9551 (95.5%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
|-
Line 219: Line 224:
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9998 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9998 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
⚫
|-
⚫
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio
⚫
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1095 (11.0%)
⚫
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8905 (89.0%)
⚫
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine At-Large
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine At-Large
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8046 (80.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8103 (81.0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|1954 (19.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|1897 (19.0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine First District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine First District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9988 (99.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9989 (99.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|12 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|11 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Harris
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Harris
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Maine Second District
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Maine Second District
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|702 (7.0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|719 (7.2%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9298 (93.0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9281 (92.8%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
|-
Line 251: Line 251:
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Michigan
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Michigan
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5014 (50.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5094 (50.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4986 (49.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4906 (49.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Minnesota
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Minnesota
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7643 (76.4%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7691 (76.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2357 (23.6%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2309 (23.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
|-
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|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nebraska Second District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nebraska Second District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5118 (51.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5186 (51.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4882 (48.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4814 (48.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Lean Harris
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Lean Harris
|-
|-
Line 296: Line 296:
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nevada
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nevada
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5002 (50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5034 (50.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4998 (50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4966 (49.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Hampshire
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Hampshire
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|6693 (66.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|6690 (66.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|3307 (33.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|3310 (33.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
|-
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|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|North Carolina
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|North Carolina
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4828 (48.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4801 (48%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5172 (51.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5199 (51%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Lean Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Lean Trump
|-
|-
Line 329: Line 329:
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9997 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9997 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|906 (9.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9094 (90.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Oklahoma
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Oklahoma
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|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Pennsylvania
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Pennsylvania
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5018 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5031 (50.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4982 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4969 (49.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
|-
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|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Texas
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Texas
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|594 (5.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|616 (6.2%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9406 (94.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9384 (93.8%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
|-
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|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Virginia
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Virginia
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7471 (74.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7485 (74.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2529 (25.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2515 (25.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
|-
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|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Wisconsin
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Wisconsin
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5016 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5019 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4984 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4981 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
|-
Line 413: Line 418:
===How does it work?===
===How does it work?===
The model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:
The model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:
*The average base odds for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
*The average "base odds" for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
*Most recent 10 polls from at least a "B-rated" pollster, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
*Most recent 10 polls, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
*Historic Senate and Presidential results going back to 1992, as well as factoring in emerging trends and historic partisan shifts.
*Historic Senate, House, and Presidential results going back to 1992, which help factor in emerging trends and partisan shifts.
*Historic polling errors within the state
*Presidential Primary turnout.
*Presidential Primary turnout in the state


These are then ran through 10,000 simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.
The state is ran through 10,000 election simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.


===Is it accurate?===
===Is it accurate?===
Nope!
Maybe. Obviously, there's no real way to know until election day. I tested the model with the 2020 Presidential Election and came out with the following results. No data has been changed aside from removing data from 2022 and 2020 for hopefully obvious reasons.

⚫
[[File:Civics prediction 2020.png|800px|center]]
===Why is there no chance of a electoral college tie?===
The simulator currently marks any electoral college "tie" as a Trump victory, as the House of Representatives is majority Republican and thus will vote for Donald Trump should an electoral college tie occur.


===2020 test===
===2020 test===
⚫
[[File:Civics prediction 2020.png|800px|center]]
====All states====
====All states====
<center>
<center>
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Maine Second District
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Maine Second District
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|766 (7.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|766 (7.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9298 (92.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9234 (92.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
|-
Line 725: Line 734:


*Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
*Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
**'''Joe Biden''': 275 electoral votes
**'''Joe Biden''': 279 electoral votes
**'''Donald Trump''': 263 electoral votes
**'''Donald Trump''': 259 electoral votes

*2020 actual:
**'''Joe Biden''': 306 electoral votes
**'''Donald Trump''': 232 electoral votes


*Odds of winning electoral college:
*Odds of winning electoral college:
**'''Joe Biden''': 55.22%
**'''Joe Biden''': 59.76%
**'''Donald Trump''': 43.94%
**'''Donald Trump''': 39.47%


*Odds of winning popular vote:
*Odds of winning popular vote:

Latest revision as of 22:31, 8 November 2024

last updated August 15, 2024

State highlights

State Simulations Harris Won Simulations Trump Won Rank
Arizona 4968 (49.7%) 5032 (50.3%) Toss Up
Florida 2368 (23.7%) 7632 (76.3%) Likely Trump
Georgia 4983 (49.8%) 5017 (50.2%) Toss Up
Iowa 449 (4.5%) 9551 (95.5%) Safe Trump
Ohio 906 (9.1%) 9094 (90.9%) Likely Trump
Maine At-Large 8103 (81.0%) 1897 (19.0%) Likely Harris
Maine Second District 719 (7.2%) 9281 (92.8%) Likely Trump
Michigan 5094 (50.9%) 4906 (49.1%) Toss Up
Minnesota 7691 (76.9%) 2309 (23.1%) Likely Harris
Nebraska Second District 5186 (51.9%) 4814 (48.1%) Lean Harris
Nevada 5034 (50.3%) 4966 (49.7%) Toss Up
New Hampshire 6690 (66.9%) 3310 (33.1%) Likely Harris
New Mexico 7426 (74.3%) 2574 (25.7%) Likely Harris
North Carolina 4801 (48%) 5199 (52%) Leans Trump
Pennsylvania 5031 (50.3%) 4969 (49.7%) Toss Up
Texas 616 (6.2%) 9384 (93.8%) Likely Trump
Virginia 7485 (74.8%) 2515 (25.2%) Likely Harris
Wisconsin 5019 (50.2%) 4981 (49.8%) Toss Up

Overall statistics

  • Final electoral votes:
    • Kamala Harris: 276 electoral votes
    • Donald Trump: 262 electoral votes
  • Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
    • Kamala Harris: 272 electoral votes
    • Donald Trump: 266 electoral votes
  • Odds of winning electoral college:
    • Kamala Harris: 52.7%
    • Donald Trump: 47.3%
  • Odds of winning popular vote:
    • Kamala Harris: 97.4%
    • Donald Trump: 2.6%

All states

State Simulations Harris Won Simulations Trump Won Rank
Alabama 6 (0.1%) 9994 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Arkansas 11 (0.1%) 9989 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Alaska 65 (0.7%) 9935 (99.3%) Safe Trump
Arizona 4968 (49.7%) 5032 (50.3%) Toss Up
California 9994 (99.9%) 6 (0.1%) Safe Harris
Colorado 9919 (99.2%) 81 (0.8%) Safe Harris
Connecticut 9980 (99.8%) 20 (0.2%) Safe Harris
Delaware 9992 (99.9%) 8 (0.1%) Safe Harris
District of Columbia 10000 (100%) 0 (0%) Safe Harris
Florida 2368 (23.7%) 7632 (76.3%) Likely Trump
Georgia 4983 (49.8%) 5017 (50.2%) Toss Up
Hawaii 9988 (99.9%) 12 (0.1%) Safe Harris
Idaho 12 (0.1%) 9988 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Illinois 9984 (99.8%) 16 (0.2%) Safe Harris
Indiana 35 (0.3%) 9965 (99.7%) Safe Trump
Iowa 449 (4.5%) 9551 (95.5%) Safe Trump
Kansas 3 (0%) 9997 (100%) Safe Trump
Kentucky 3 (0%) 9997 (100%) Safe Trump
Louisiana 2 (0%) 9998 (100%) Safe Trump
Maine At-Large 8103 (81.0%) 1897 (19.0%) Likely Harris
Maine First District 9989 (99.9%) 11 (0.1%) Safe Harris
Maine Second District 719 (7.2%) 9281 (92.8%) Likely Trump
Maryland 9997 (100%) 3 (0%) Safe Harris
Massachusetts 9999 (100%) 1 (0%) Safe Harris
Michigan 5094 (50.9%) 4906 (49.1%) Toss Up
Minnesota 7691 (76.9%) 2309 (23.1%) Likely Harris
Mississippi 5 (0.1%) 9995 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Missouri 8 (0.1%) 9992 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Montana 4 (0%) 9996 (100%) Safe Trump
Nebraska At Large 2 (0%) 9998 (100%) Safe Trump
Nebraska First District 15 (0.2%) 9985 (99.8%) Safe Trump
Nebraska Second District 5186 (51.9%) 4814 (48.1%) Lean Harris
Nebraska Third District 2 (0%) 9998 (100%) Safe Trump
Nevada 5034 (50.3%) 4966 (49.7%) Toss Up
New Hampshire 6690 (66.9%) 3310 (33.1%) Likely Harris
New Jersey 9984 (99.8%) 16 (0.2%) Safe Harris
New Mexico 7372 (73.7%) 2628 (26.3%) Likely Harris
New York 9992 (99.9%) 8 (0.1%) Safe Harris
North Carolina 4801 (48%) 5199 (51%) Lean Trump
North Dakota 3 (0%) 9997 (100%) Safe Trump
Ohio 906 (9.1%) 9094 (90.9%) Likely Trump
Oklahoma 1 (0%) 9999 (100%) Safe Trump
Oregon 9984 (99.8%) 16 (0.2%) Safe Harris
Pennsylvania 5031 (50.3%) 4969 (49.7%) Toss Up
Rhode Island 9994 (99.9%) 6 (0.1%) Safe Harris
South Carolina 9 (0.1%) 9991 (99.9%) Safe Trump
South Dakota 4 (0%) 9996 (100%) Safe Trump
Tennessee 7 (0.1%) 9993 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Texas 616 (6.2%) 9384 (93.8%) Likely Trump
Utah 1 (0%) 9999 (100%) Safe Trump
Vermont 9999 (100%) 1 (0%) Safe Harris
Virginia 7485 (74.8%) 2515 (25.2%) Likely Harris
Washington 9990 (99.9%) 10 (0.1%) Safe Harris
West Virginia 0 (0%) 10000 (100%) Safe Trump
Wisconsin 5019 (50.2%) 4981 (49.8%) Toss Up
Wyoming 0 (0%) 10000 (100%) Safe Trump
Totals 276 262

FAQ

How does it work?

The model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:

  • The average "base odds" for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
  • Most recent 10 polls, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
  • Historic Senate, House, and Presidential results going back to 1992, which help factor in emerging trends and partisan shifts.
  • Historic polling errors within the state
  • Presidential Primary turnout in the state

The state is ran through 10,000 election simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.

Is it accurate?

Nope!

Why is there no chance of a electoral college tie?

The simulator currently marks any electoral college "tie" as a Trump victory, as the House of Representatives is majority Republican and thus will vote for Donald Trump should an electoral college tie occur.

2020 test

All states

State Simulations Biden Won Simulations Trump Won Rank
Alabama 5 (0.1%) 9995 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Arkansas 6 (0.1%) 9994 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Alaska 233 (2.3%) 9767 (97.7%) Safe Trump
Arizona 5045 (50.4%) 4955 (49.5%) Toss Up
California 9997 (100%) 3 (0%) Safe Biden
Colorado 9819 (98.2%) 181 (1.8%) Safe Biden
Connecticut 9984 (99.8%) 16 (0.2%) Safe Biden
Delaware 9996 (100%) 4 (0%) Safe Biden
District of Columbia 10000 (100%) 0 (0%) Safe Biden
Florida 2743 (27.4%) 8343 (72.6%) Likely Trump
Georgia 4967 (49.7%) 5033 (50.3%) Toss Up
Hawaii 9996 (100%) 4 (0%) Safe Biden
Idaho 7 (0.1%) 9993 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Illinois 9992 (99.9%) 8 (0.1%) Safe Biden
Indiana 31 (0.3%) 9969 (99.7%) Safe Trump
Iowa 687 (6.9%) 9313 (93.1%) Likely Trump
Kansas 2 (0%) 9998 (100%) Safe Trump
Kentucky 2 (0%) 9998 (100%) Safe Trump
Louisiana 2 (0%) 9998 (100%) Safe Trump
Maine At-Large 7749 (77.5%) 2251 (22.5%) Likely Biden
Maine First District 9989 (99.9%) 11 (0.1%) Safe Biden
Maine Second District 766 (7.7%) 9234 (92.3%) Likely Trump
Maryland 9998 (100%) 2 (0%) Safe Biden
Massachusetts 9999 (100%) 1 (0%) Safe Biden
Michigan 5138 (51.4%) 4862 (48.6%) Leans Biden
Minnesota 7701 (77.0%) 2299 (23.0%) Likely Biden
Mississippi 4 (0%) 9996 (100%) Safe Trump
Missouri 12 (0.1%) 9988 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Montana 6 (0.1%) 9994 (100%) Safe Trump
Nebraska At Large 1 (0%) 9999 (100%) Safe Trump
Nebraska First District 13 (0.1%) 9987 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Nebraska Second District 5058 (50.8%) 4942 (49.2%) Toss Up
Nebraska Third District 1 (0%) 9999 (100%) Safe Trump
Nevada 5162 (51.6%) 4838 (48.4%) Leans Biden
New Hampshire 6739 (67.4%) 3261 (32.6%) Likely Biden
New Jersey 9992 (99.9%) 8 (0.1%) Safe Biden
New Mexico 7535 (75.3%) 2465 (24.7%) Likely Biden
New York 9992 (99.9%) 8 (0.1%) Safe Biden
North Carolina 4963 (49.6%) 5037 (50.4%) Toss Up
North Dakota 2 (0%) 9998 (100%) Safe Trump
Ohio 1179 (11.8%) 8821 (88.2%) Likely Trump
Oklahoma 1 (0%) 9999 (100%) Safe Trump
Oregon 9996 (100%) 4 (0%) Safe Biden
Pennsylvania 5083 (50.8%) 4917 (49.2%) Toss Up
Rhode Island 9998 (100%) 2 (0%) Safe Biden
South Carolina 2 (0%) 9998 (100%) Safe Trump
South Dakota 3 (0%) 9997 (100%) Safe Trump
Tennessee 8 (0.1%) 9992 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Texas 668 (6.7%) 9332 (93.3%) Likely Trump
Utah 1 (0%) 9999 (100%) Safe Trump
Vermont 10000 (100%) 0 (0%) Safe Biden
Virginia 7848 (78.5%) 2152 (21.5%) Likely Biden
Washington 9992 (99.9%) 8 (0.1%) Safe Biden
West Virginia 1 (0%) 9999 (100%) Safe Trump
Wisconsin 5169 (51.7%) 4831 (48.3%) Leans Biden
Wyoming 0 (0%) 10000 (100%) Safe Trump
Totals 290 248

Overall statistics

  • Final electoral votes:
    • Joe Biden: 290 electoral votes
    • Donald Trump: 248 electoral votes
  • Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
    • Joe Biden: 279 electoral votes
    • Donald Trump: 259 electoral votes
  • 2020 actual:
    • Joe Biden: 306 electoral votes
    • Donald Trump: 232 electoral votes
  • Odds of winning electoral college:
    • Joe Biden: 59.76%
    • Donald Trump: 39.47%
  • Odds of winning popular vote:
    • Joe Biden: 99.2%
    • Donald Trump: 0.8%

The model predicted 49 out of 50 states correctly in the 2020 election, predicting only the state of Georgia wrong.

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