Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions
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==All states== |
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{| class="wikitable" |
{| class="wikitable" |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9998 (100%) |
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9998 (100%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump |
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump |
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|- |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1095 (11.0%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8905 (89.0%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump |
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==States considered competitive/swing== |
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{| class="wikitable" |
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! State |
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! Simulations Harris Won |
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! Simulations Trump Won |
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! Rank |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arizona |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4976 (49.8%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5024 (50.2%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Florida |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1657 (16.6%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8343 (83.4%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Georgia |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4963 (49.6%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5037 (50.4%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Iowa |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|441 (4.4%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9559 (95.6%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1095 (11.0%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8905 (89.0%) |
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| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump |
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Revision as of 04:01, 13 August 2024
All states
| State | Simulations Harris Won | Simulations Trump Won | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 6 (0.1%) | 9994 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Arkansas | 11 (0.1%) | 9989 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Alaska | 65 (0.7%) | 9935 (99.3%) | Safe Trump |
| Arizona | 4976 (49.8%) | 5024 (50.2%) | Toss Up |
| California | 9994 (99.9%) | 6 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| Colorado | 9919 (99.2%) | 81 (0.8%) | Safe Harris |
| Connecticut | 9980 (99.8%) | 20 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| Delaware | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| Florida | 1657 (16.6%) | 8343 (83.4%) | Likely Trump |
| Georgia | 4963 (49.6%) | 5037 (50.4%) | Toss Up |
| Hawaii | 9988 (99.9%) | 12 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| Idaho | 12 (0.1%) | 9988 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Illinois | 9984 (99.8%) | 16 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| Indiana | 35 (0.3%) | 9965 (99.7%) | Safe Trump |
| Iowa | 441 (4.4%) | 9559 (95.6%) | Safe Trump |
| Kansas | 3 (0.0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Kentucky | 3 (0.0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Louisiana | 2 (0.0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Ohio | 1095 (11.0%) | 8905 (89.0%) | Likely Trump |
States considered competitive/swing
| State | Simulations Harris Won | Simulations Trump Won | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 4976 (49.8%) | 5024 (50.2%) | Toss Up |
| Florida | 1657 (16.6%) | 8343 (83.4%) | Likely Trump |
| Georgia | 4963 (49.6%) | 5037 (50.4%) | Toss Up |
| Iowa | 441 (4.4%) | 9559 (95.6%) | Safe Trump |
| Ohio | 1095 (11.0%) | 8905 (89.0%) | Likely Trump |
FAQ
How does it work?
The model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:
- The average base odds for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
- Most recent 10 polls from at least a "B-rated" pollster, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
- Historic Senate and Presidential results going back to 1992, as well as factoring in emerging trends and historic partisan shifts.
- Presidential Primary turnout.
These are then ran through 10,000 simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.
Is it accurate?
I have no idea lol