Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions
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Revision as of 17:50, 13 August 2024
State highlights
| State | Simulations Harris Won | Simulations Trump Won | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 4976 (49.8%) | 5024 (50.2%) | Toss Up |
| Florida | 1657 (16.6%) | 8343 (83.4%) | Likely Trump |
| Georgia | 4963 (49.6%) | 5037 (50.4%) | Toss Up |
| Iowa | 441 (4.4%) | 9559 (95.6%) | Safe Trump |
| Ohio | 1095 (11.0%) | 8905 (89.0%) | Likely Trump |
| Maine At-Large | 8046 (80.5%) | 1954 (19.5%) | Likely Harris |
| Michigan | 5014 (50.1%) | 4986 (49.9%) | Toss Up |
| Minnesota | 7643 (76.4%) | 2357 (23.6%) | Likely Harris |
| Nebraska Second District | 5118 (51.2%) | 4882 (48.8%) | Lean Harris |
| Nevada | 5002 (50%) | 4998 (50%) | Toss Up |
| New Hampshire | 6693 (66.9%) | 3307 (33.1%) | Likely Harris |
| New Mexico | 7372 (73.7%) | 2628 (26.3%) | Likely Harris |
| North Carolina | 4828 (48.3%) | 5172 (51.7%) | Leans Trump |
| Pennsylvania | 5018 (50.2%) | 4982 (49.8%) | Toss Up |
| Texas | 594 (5.9%) | 9406 (94.1%) | Likely Trump |
| Virginia | 7471 (74.7%) | 2529 (25.3%) | Likely Harris |
| Wisconsin | 5016 (50.2%) | 4984 (49.8%) | Toss Up |
Overall statistics
- Final electoral votes:
- Kamala Harris: 276 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 262 electoral votes
- Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
- Kamala Harris: 272 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 266 electoral votes
- Odds of winning electoral college:
- Kamala Harris: 52.54%
- Donald Trump: 46.81%
- Odds of winning popular vote:
- Kamala Harris: 97.4%
- Donald Trump: 2.6%
All states
| State | Simulations Harris Won | Simulations Trump Won | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 6 (0.1%) | 9994 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Arkansas | 11 (0.1%) | 9989 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Alaska | 65 (0.7%) | 9935 (99.3%) | Safe Trump |
| Arizona | 4976 (49.8%) | 5024 (50.2%) | Toss Up |
| California | 9994 (99.9%) | 6 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| Colorado | 9919 (99.2%) | 81 (0.8%) | Safe Harris |
| Connecticut | 9980 (99.8%) | 20 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| Delaware | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| District of Columbia | 10000 (100%) | 0 (0%) | Safe Harris |
| Florida | 1657 (16.6%) | 8343 (83.4%) | Likely Trump |
| Georgia | 4963 (49.6%) | 5037 (50.4%) | Toss Up |
| Hawaii | 9988 (99.9%) | 12 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| Idaho | 12 (0.1%) | 9988 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Illinois | 9984 (99.8%) | 16 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| Indiana | 35 (0.3%) | 9965 (99.7%) | Safe Trump |
| Iowa | 441 (4.4%) | 9559 (95.6%) | Safe Trump |
| Kansas | 3 (0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Kentucky | 3 (0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Louisiana | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Ohio | 1095 (11.0%) | 8905 (89.0%) | Likely Trump |
| Maine At-Large | 8046 (80.5%) | 1954 (19.5%) | Likely Harris |
| Maine First District | 9988 (99.8%) | 12 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| Maine Second District | 702 (7.0%) | 9298 (93.0%) | Likely Trump |
| Maryland | 9997 (100%) | 3 (0%) | Safe Harris |
| Massachusetts | 9999 (100%) | 1 (0%) | Safe Harris |
| Michigan | 5014 (50.1%) | 4986 (49.9%) | Toss Up |
| Minnesota | 7643 (76.4%) | 2357 (23.6%) | Likely Harris |
| Mississippi | 5 (0.1%) | 9995 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Missouri | 8 (0.1%) | 9992 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Montana | 4 (0%) | 9996 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska At Large | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska First District | 15 (0.2%) | 9985 (99.8%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska Second District | 5118 (51.2%) | 4882 (48.8%) | Lean Harris |
| Nebraska Third District | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nevada | 5002 (50%) | 4998 (50%) | Toss Up |
| New Hampshire | 6693 (66.9%) | 3307 (33.1%) | Likely Harris |
| New Jersey | 9984 (99.8%) | 16 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| New Mexico | 7372 (73.7%) | 2628 (26.3%) | Likely Harris |
| New York | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| North Carolina | 4828 (48.3%) | 5172 (51.7%) | Lean Trump |
| North Dakota | 3 (0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Oklahoma | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Oregon | 9984 (99.8%) | 16 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| Pennsylvania | 5018 (50.2%) | 4982 (49.8%) | Toss Up |
| Rhode Island | 9994 (99.9%) | 6 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| South Carolina | 9 (0.1%) | 9991 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| South Dakota | 4 (0%) | 9996 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Tennessee | 7 (0.1%) | 9993 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Texas | 594 (5.9%) | 9406 (94.1%) | Likely Trump |
| Utah | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Vermont | 9999 (100%) | 1 (0%) | Safe Harris |
| Virginia | 7471 (74.7%) | 2529 (25.3%) | Likely Harris |
| Washington | 9990 (99.9%) | 10 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| West Virginia | 0 (0%) | 10000 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Wisconsin | 5016 (50.2%) | 4984 (49.8%) | Toss Up |
| Wyoming | 0 (0%) | 10000 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Totals | 276 | 262 |
FAQ
How does it work?
The model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:
- The average base odds for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
- Most recent 10 polls from at least a "B-rated" pollster, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
- Historic Senate and Presidential results going back to 1992, as well as factoring in emerging trends and historic partisan shifts.
- Presidential Primary turnout.
These are then ran through 10,000 simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.
Is it accurate?
I have no idea lol