Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions

From Computernewb Wiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search
No edit summary
Line 100: Line 100:
==FAQ==
==FAQ==
===How does it work?===
===How does it work?===
Calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:
The model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:
*The average base odds for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
*The average base odds for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
*Most recent 10 polls from at least a "B-rated" pollster, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
*Most recent 10 polls from at least a "B-rated" pollster, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.

Revision as of 03:54, 13 August 2024

State Simulations Harris Won Simulations Trump Won Rank
Alabama 6 (0.1%) 9994 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Arkansas 11 (0.1%) 9989 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Alaska 65 (0.7%) 9935 (99.3%) Safe Trump
Arizona 4976 (49.8%) 5024 (50.2%) Toss Up
California 9994 (99.9%) 6 (0.1%) Safe Harris
Colorado 9919 (99.2%) 81 (0.8%) Safe Harris
Connecticut 9980 (99.8%) 20 (0.2%) Safe Harris
Delaware 9992 (99.9%) 8 (0.1%) Safe Harris
Florida 1657 (16.6%) 8343 (83.4%) Likely Trump
Georgia 4963 (49.6%) 5037 (50.4%) Toss Up
Hawaii 9988 (99.9%) 12 (0.1%) Safe Harris
Idaho 12 (0.1%) 9988 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Illinois 9984 (99.8%) 16 (0.2%) Safe Harris
Indiana 35 (0.3%) 9965 (99.7%) Safe Trump
Iowa 441 (4.4%) 9559 (95.6%) Safe Trump
Kansas 3 (0.0%) 9997 (100%) Safe Trump
Kentucky 3 (0.0%) 9997 (100%) Safe Trump
Louisiana 2 (0.0%) 9998 (100%) Safe Trump

FAQ

How does it work?

The model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:

  • The average base odds for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
  • Most recent 10 polls from at least a "B-rated" pollster, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
  • Historic Senate and Presidential results going back to 1992, as well as factoring in emerging trends and historic partisan shifts.
  • Presidential Primary turnout.

These are then ran through 10,000 simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.

Is it accurate?

I have no idea lol