Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 04:08, 13 August 2024

State	Simulations Harris Won	Simulations Trump Won	Rank
Alabama	6 (0.1%)	9994 (99.9%)	Safe Trump
Arkansas	11 (0.1%)	9989 (99.9%)	Safe Trump
Alaska	65 (0.7%)	9935 (99.3%)	Safe Trump
Arizona	4976 (49.8%)	5024 (50.2%)	Toss Up
California	9994 (99.9%)	6 (0.1%)	Safe Harris
Colorado	9919 (99.2%)	81 (0.8%)	Safe Harris
Connecticut	9980 (99.8%)	20 (0.2%)	Safe Harris
Delaware	9992 (99.9%)	8 (0.1%)	Safe Harris
District of Columbia	10000 (100%)	0 (0.0%)	Safe Harris
Florida	1657 (16.6%)	8343 (83.4%)	Likely Trump
Georgia	4963 (49.6%)	5037 (50.4%)	Toss Up
Hawaii	9988 (99.9%)	12 (0.1%)	Safe Harris
Idaho	12 (0.1%)	9988 (99.9%)	Safe Trump
Illinois	9984 (99.8%)	16 (0.2%)	Safe Harris
Indiana	35 (0.3%)	9965 (99.7%)	Safe Trump
Iowa	441 (4.4%)	9559 (95.6%)	Safe Trump
Kansas	3 (0.0%)	9997 (100%)	Safe Trump
Kentucky	3 (0.0%)	9997 (100%)	Safe Trump
Louisiana	2 (0.0%)	9998 (100%)	Safe Trump
Ohio	1095 (11.0%)	8905 (89.0%)	Likely Trump
Maine At-Large	8046 (80.5%)	1954 (19.5%)	Likely Harris
Maine First District	9988 (99.8%)	12 (0.1%)	Safe Harris
Maine Second District	702 (7.0%)	9298 (93.0%)	Likely Trump
Maryland	9997 (100%)	3 (0.0%)	Safe Harris
Massachusetts	9999 (100%)	1 (0.0%)	Safe Harris

State	Simulations Harris Won	Simulations Trump Won	Rank
Arizona	4976 (49.8%)	5024 (50.2%)	Toss Up
Florida	1657 (16.6%)	8343 (83.4%)	Likely Trump
Georgia	4963 (49.6%)	5037 (50.4%)	Toss Up
Iowa	441 (4.4%)	9559 (95.6%)	Safe Trump
Ohio	1095 (11.0%)	8905 (89.0%)	Likely Trump
Maine At-Large	8046 (80.5%)	1954 (19.5%)	Likely Harris

The model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:

The average base odds for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
Most recent 10 polls from at least a "B-rated" pollster, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
Historic Senate and Presidential results going back to 1992, as well as factoring in emerging trends and historic partisan shifts.
Presidential Primary turnout.

These are then ran through 10,000 simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.

I have no idea lol

@@ Line 45: / Line 45: @@
 | bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9992 (99.9%)
 | bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8 (0.1%)
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Harris
+|-
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|District of Columbia
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|10000 (100%)
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|0 (0.0%)
 | bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Harris
 |-
@@ Line 101: / Line 106: @@
 | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8905 (89.0%)
 | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
+|-
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine At-Large
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8046 (80.5%)
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|1954 (19.5%)
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
+|-
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine First District
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9988 (99.8%)
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|12 (0.1%)
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Harris
+|-
+| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Maine Second District
+| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|702 (7.0%)
+| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9298 (93.0%)
+| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
+|-
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maryland
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9997 (100%)
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|3 (0.0%)
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Harris
+|-
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Massachusetts
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9999 (100%)
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|1 (0.0%)
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Harris
 |-
 |}
@@ Line 136: / Line 166: @@
 | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8905 (89.0%)
 | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
+|-
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine At-Large
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8046 (80.5%)
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|1954 (19.5%)
+| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
 |-
 |}