Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions

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[[File:Civics prediction.png|800px|center]]
<center>''last updated August 13, 2024''</center>

==State highlights==
<center>
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! State
! Simulations Harris Won
! Simulations Trump Won
! Rank
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arizona
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4976 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5024 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Florida
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1657 (16.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8343 (83.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Georgia
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4963 (49.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5037 (50.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Iowa
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|441 (4.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9559 (95.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1095 (11.0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8905 (89.0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine At-Large
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8046 (80.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|1954 (19.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Michigan
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5014 (50.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4986 (49.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Minnesota
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7643 (76.4%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2357 (23.6%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nebraska Second District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5118 (51.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4882 (48.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Lean Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nevada
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5002 (50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4998 (50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Hampshire
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|6693 (66.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|3307 (33.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Mexico
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7372 (73.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2628 (26.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|North Carolina
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4828 (48.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5172 (51.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Leans Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Pennsylvania
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5018 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4982 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Texas
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|594 (5.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9406 (94.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Virginia
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7471 (74.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2529 (25.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Wisconsin
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5016 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4984 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
|}
</center>

==Overall statistics==
*Final electoral votes:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 276 electoral votes
**'''Donald Trump''': 262 electoral votes

*Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 272 electoral votes
**'''Donald Trump''': 266 electoral votes

*Odds of winning electoral college:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 52.54%
**'''Donald Trump''': 46.81%

*Odds of winning popular vote:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 97.4%
**'''Donald Trump''': 2.6%

==All states==
==All states==
<center>
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
|-
|-
Line 290: Line 408:
!Totals!!276!!262!!
!Totals!!276!!262!!
|}
|}
</center>
===Overall statistics===
*Average electoral votes:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 272 electoral votes
**'''Donald Trump''': 266 electoral votes

*Odds of winning electoral college:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 52.54%
**'''Donald Trump''': 46.81%

*Odds of winning popular vote:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 97.0%
**'''Donald Trump''': 3.0%

==States considered competitive/swing==
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! State
! Simulations Harris Won
! Simulations Trump Won
! Rank
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arizona
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4976 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5024 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Florida
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1657 (16.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8343 (83.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Georgia
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4963 (49.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5037 (50.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Iowa
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|441 (4.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9559 (95.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1095 (11.0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8905 (89.0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine At-Large
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8046 (80.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|1954 (19.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Michigan
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5014 (50.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4986 (49.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Minnesota
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7643 (76.4%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2357 (23.6%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nebraska Second District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5118 (51.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4882 (48.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Lean Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nevada
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5002 (50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4998 (50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Hampshire
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|6693 (66.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|3307 (33.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Mexico
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7372 (73.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2628 (26.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|North Carolina
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4828 (48.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5172 (51.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Leans Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Pennsylvania
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5018 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4982 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Texas
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|594 (5.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9406 (94.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Virginia
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7471 (74.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2529 (25.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Wisconsin
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5016 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4984 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
|}


==FAQ==
==FAQ==

Revision as of 17:49, 13 August 2024

last updated August 13, 2024

State highlights

State Simulations Harris Won Simulations Trump Won Rank
Arizona 4976 (49.8%) 5024 (50.2%) Toss Up
Florida 1657 (16.6%) 8343 (83.4%) Likely Trump
Georgia 4963 (49.6%) 5037 (50.4%) Toss Up
Iowa 441 (4.4%) 9559 (95.6%) Safe Trump
Ohio 1095 (11.0%) 8905 (89.0%) Likely Trump
Maine At-Large 8046 (80.5%) 1954 (19.5%) Likely Harris
Michigan 5014 (50.1%) 4986 (49.9%) Toss Up
Minnesota 7643 (76.4%) 2357 (23.6%) Likely Harris
Nebraska Second District 5118 (51.2%) 4882 (48.8%) Lean Harris
Nevada 5002 (50%) 4998 (50%) Toss Up
New Hampshire 6693 (66.9%) 3307 (33.1%) Likely Harris
New Mexico 7372 (73.7%) 2628 (26.3%) Likely Harris
North Carolina 4828 (48.3%) 5172 (51.7%) Leans Trump
Pennsylvania 5018 (50.2%) 4982 (49.8%) Toss Up
Texas 594 (5.9%) 9406 (94.1%) Likely Trump
Virginia 7471 (74.7%) 2529 (25.3%) Likely Harris
Wisconsin 5016 (50.2%) 4984 (49.8%) Toss Up

Overall statistics

  • Final electoral votes:
    • Kamala Harris: 276 electoral votes
    • Donald Trump: 262 electoral votes
  • Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
    • Kamala Harris: 272 electoral votes
    • Donald Trump: 266 electoral votes
  • Odds of winning electoral college:
    • Kamala Harris: 52.54%
    • Donald Trump: 46.81%
  • Odds of winning popular vote:
    • Kamala Harris: 97.4%
    • Donald Trump: 2.6%

All states

State Simulations Harris Won Simulations Trump Won Rank
Alabama 6 (0.1%) 9994 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Arkansas 11 (0.1%) 9989 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Alaska 65 (0.7%) 9935 (99.3%) Safe Trump
Arizona 4976 (49.8%) 5024 (50.2%) Toss Up
California 9994 (99.9%) 6 (0.1%) Safe Harris
Colorado 9919 (99.2%) 81 (0.8%) Safe Harris
Connecticut 9980 (99.8%) 20 (0.2%) Safe Harris
Delaware 9992 (99.9%) 8 (0.1%) Safe Harris
District of Columbia 10000 (100%) 0 (0%) Safe Harris
Florida 1657 (16.6%) 8343 (83.4%) Likely Trump
Georgia 4963 (49.6%) 5037 (50.4%) Toss Up
Hawaii 9988 (99.9%) 12 (0.1%) Safe Harris
Idaho 12 (0.1%) 9988 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Illinois 9984 (99.8%) 16 (0.2%) Safe Harris
Indiana 35 (0.3%) 9965 (99.7%) Safe Trump
Iowa 441 (4.4%) 9559 (95.6%) Safe Trump
Kansas 3 (0%) 9997 (100%) Safe Trump
Kentucky 3 (0%) 9997 (100%) Safe Trump
Louisiana 2 (0%) 9998 (100%) Safe Trump
Ohio 1095 (11.0%) 8905 (89.0%) Likely Trump
Maine At-Large 8046 (80.5%) 1954 (19.5%) Likely Harris
Maine First District 9988 (99.8%) 12 (0.1%) Safe Harris
Maine Second District 702 (7.0%) 9298 (93.0%) Likely Trump
Maryland 9997 (100%) 3 (0%) Safe Harris
Massachusetts 9999 (100%) 1 (0%) Safe Harris
Michigan 5014 (50.1%) 4986 (49.9%) Toss Up
Minnesota 7643 (76.4%) 2357 (23.6%) Likely Harris
Mississippi 5 (0.1%) 9995 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Missouri 8 (0.1%) 9992 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Montana 4 (0%) 9996 (100%) Safe Trump
Nebraska At Large 2 (0%) 9998 (100%) Safe Trump
Nebraska First District 15 (0.2%) 9985 (99.8%) Safe Trump
Nebraska Second District 5118 (51.2%) 4882 (48.8%) Lean Harris
Nebraska Third District 2 (0%) 9998 (100%) Safe Trump
Nevada 5002 (50%) 4998 (50%) Toss Up
New Hampshire 6693 (66.9%) 3307 (33.1%) Likely Harris
New Jersey 9984 (99.8%) 16 (0.2%) Safe Harris
New Mexico 7372 (73.7%) 2628 (26.3%) Likely Harris
New York 9992 (99.9%) 8 (0.1%) Safe Harris
North Carolina 4828 (48.3%) 5172 (51.7%) Lean Trump
North Dakota 3 (0%) 9997 (100%) Safe Trump
Oklahoma 1 (0%) 9999 (100%) Safe Trump
Oregon 9984 (99.8%) 16 (0.2%) Safe Harris
Pennsylvania 5018 (50.2%) 4982 (49.8%) Toss Up
Rhode Island 9994 (99.9%) 6 (0.1%) Safe Harris
South Carolina 9 (0.1%) 9991 (99.9%) Safe Trump
South Dakota 4 (0%) 9996 (100%) Safe Trump
Tennessee 7 (0.1%) 9993 (99.9%) Safe Trump
Texas 594 (5.9%) 9406 (94.1%) Likely Trump
Utah 1 (0%) 9999 (100%) Safe Trump
Vermont 9999 (100%) 1 (0%) Safe Harris
Virginia 7471 (74.7%) 2529 (25.3%) Likely Harris
Washington 9990 (99.9%) 10 (0.1%) Safe Harris
West Virginia 0 (0%) 10000 (100%) Safe Trump
Wisconsin 5016 (50.2%) 4984 (49.8%) Toss Up
Wyoming 0 (0%) 10000 (100%) Safe Trump
Totals 276 262

FAQ

How does it work?

The model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:

  • The average base odds for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
  • Most recent 10 polls from at least a "B-rated" pollster, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
  • Historic Senate and Presidential results going back to 1992, as well as factoring in emerging trends and historic partisan shifts.
  • Presidential Primary turnout.

These are then ran through 10,000 simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.

Is it accurate?

I have no idea lol

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