Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions
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===Is it accurate?=== |
===Is it accurate?=== |
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Nope! |
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Maybe. Obviously, there's no real way to know until election day. I tested the model with the 2020 Presidential Election and came out with the following results. No data has been changed, aside from removing results data from 2022 and 2020 and replacing polls/primary turnout from 2024 with appropriate data from 2020. |
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===Why is there no chance of a electoral college tie?=== |
===Why is there no chance of a electoral college tie?=== |
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Latest revision as of 22:31, 8 November 2024
State highlights
| State | Simulations Harris Won | Simulations Trump Won | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 4968 (49.7%) | 5032 (50.3%) | Toss Up |
| Florida | 2368 (23.7%) | 7632 (76.3%) | Likely Trump |
| Georgia | 4983 (49.8%) | 5017 (50.2%) | Toss Up |
| Iowa | 449 (4.5%) | 9551 (95.5%) | Safe Trump |
| Ohio | 906 (9.1%) | 9094 (90.9%) | Likely Trump |
| Maine At-Large | 8103 (81.0%) | 1897 (19.0%) | Likely Harris |
| Maine Second District | 719 (7.2%) | 9281 (92.8%) | Likely Trump |
| Michigan | 5094 (50.9%) | 4906 (49.1%) | Toss Up |
| Minnesota | 7691 (76.9%) | 2309 (23.1%) | Likely Harris |
| Nebraska Second District | 5186 (51.9%) | 4814 (48.1%) | Lean Harris |
| Nevada | 5034 (50.3%) | 4966 (49.7%) | Toss Up |
| New Hampshire | 6690 (66.9%) | 3310 (33.1%) | Likely Harris |
| New Mexico | 7426 (74.3%) | 2574 (25.7%) | Likely Harris |
| North Carolina | 4801 (48%) | 5199 (52%) | Leans Trump |
| Pennsylvania | 5031 (50.3%) | 4969 (49.7%) | Toss Up |
| Texas | 616 (6.2%) | 9384 (93.8%) | Likely Trump |
| Virginia | 7485 (74.8%) | 2515 (25.2%) | Likely Harris |
| Wisconsin | 5019 (50.2%) | 4981 (49.8%) | Toss Up |
Overall statistics
- Final electoral votes:
- Kamala Harris: 276 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 262 electoral votes
- Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
- Kamala Harris: 272 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 266 electoral votes
- Odds of winning electoral college:
- Kamala Harris: 52.7%
- Donald Trump: 47.3%
- Odds of winning popular vote:
- Kamala Harris: 97.4%
- Donald Trump: 2.6%
All states
| State | Simulations Harris Won | Simulations Trump Won | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 6 (0.1%) | 9994 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Arkansas | 11 (0.1%) | 9989 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Alaska | 65 (0.7%) | 9935 (99.3%) | Safe Trump |
| Arizona | 4968 (49.7%) | 5032 (50.3%) | Toss Up |
| California | 9994 (99.9%) | 6 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| Colorado | 9919 (99.2%) | 81 (0.8%) | Safe Harris |
| Connecticut | 9980 (99.8%) | 20 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| Delaware | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| District of Columbia | 10000 (100%) | 0 (0%) | Safe Harris |
| Florida | 2368 (23.7%) | 7632 (76.3%) | Likely Trump |
| Georgia | 4983 (49.8%) | 5017 (50.2%) | Toss Up |
| Hawaii | 9988 (99.9%) | 12 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| Idaho | 12 (0.1%) | 9988 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Illinois | 9984 (99.8%) | 16 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| Indiana | 35 (0.3%) | 9965 (99.7%) | Safe Trump |
| Iowa | 449 (4.5%) | 9551 (95.5%) | Safe Trump |
| Kansas | 3 (0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Kentucky | 3 (0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Louisiana | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Maine At-Large | 8103 (81.0%) | 1897 (19.0%) | Likely Harris |
| Maine First District | 9989 (99.9%) | 11 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| Maine Second District | 719 (7.2%) | 9281 (92.8%) | Likely Trump |
| Maryland | 9997 (100%) | 3 (0%) | Safe Harris |
| Massachusetts | 9999 (100%) | 1 (0%) | Safe Harris |
| Michigan | 5094 (50.9%) | 4906 (49.1%) | Toss Up |
| Minnesota | 7691 (76.9%) | 2309 (23.1%) | Likely Harris |
| Mississippi | 5 (0.1%) | 9995 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Missouri | 8 (0.1%) | 9992 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Montana | 4 (0%) | 9996 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska At Large | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska First District | 15 (0.2%) | 9985 (99.8%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska Second District | 5186 (51.9%) | 4814 (48.1%) | Lean Harris |
| Nebraska Third District | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nevada | 5034 (50.3%) | 4966 (49.7%) | Toss Up |
| New Hampshire | 6690 (66.9%) | 3310 (33.1%) | Likely Harris |
| New Jersey | 9984 (99.8%) | 16 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| New Mexico | 7372 (73.7%) | 2628 (26.3%) | Likely Harris |
| New York | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| North Carolina | 4801 (48%) | 5199 (51%) | Lean Trump |
| North Dakota | 3 (0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Ohio | 906 (9.1%) | 9094 (90.9%) | Likely Trump |
| Oklahoma | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Oregon | 9984 (99.8%) | 16 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| Pennsylvania | 5031 (50.3%) | 4969 (49.7%) | Toss Up |
| Rhode Island | 9994 (99.9%) | 6 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| South Carolina | 9 (0.1%) | 9991 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| South Dakota | 4 (0%) | 9996 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Tennessee | 7 (0.1%) | 9993 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Texas | 616 (6.2%) | 9384 (93.8%) | Likely Trump |
| Utah | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Vermont | 9999 (100%) | 1 (0%) | Safe Harris |
| Virginia | 7485 (74.8%) | 2515 (25.2%) | Likely Harris |
| Washington | 9990 (99.9%) | 10 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| West Virginia | 0 (0%) | 10000 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Wisconsin | 5019 (50.2%) | 4981 (49.8%) | Toss Up |
| Wyoming | 0 (0%) | 10000 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Totals | 276 | 262 |
FAQ
How does it work?
The model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:
- The average "base odds" for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
- Most recent 10 polls, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
- Historic Senate, House, and Presidential results going back to 1992, which help factor in emerging trends and partisan shifts.
- Historic polling errors within the state
- Presidential Primary turnout in the state
The state is ran through 10,000 election simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.
Is it accurate?
Nope!
Why is there no chance of a electoral college tie?
The simulator currently marks any electoral college "tie" as a Trump victory, as the House of Representatives is majority Republican and thus will vote for Donald Trump should an electoral college tie occur.
2020 test
All states
| State | Simulations Biden Won | Simulations Trump Won | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 5 (0.1%) | 9995 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Arkansas | 6 (0.1%) | 9994 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Alaska | 233 (2.3%) | 9767 (97.7%) | Safe Trump |
| Arizona | 5045 (50.4%) | 4955 (49.5%) | Toss Up |
| California | 9997 (100%) | 3 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Colorado | 9819 (98.2%) | 181 (1.8%) | Safe Biden |
| Connecticut | 9984 (99.8%) | 16 (0.2%) | Safe Biden |
| Delaware | 9996 (100%) | 4 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| District of Columbia | 10000 (100%) | 0 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Florida | 2743 (27.4%) | 8343 (72.6%) | Likely Trump |
| Georgia | 4967 (49.7%) | 5033 (50.3%) | Toss Up |
| Hawaii | 9996 (100%) | 4 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Idaho | 7 (0.1%) | 9993 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Illinois | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Biden |
| Indiana | 31 (0.3%) | 9969 (99.7%) | Safe Trump |
| Iowa | 687 (6.9%) | 9313 (93.1%) | Likely Trump |
| Kansas | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Kentucky | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Louisiana | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Maine At-Large | 7749 (77.5%) | 2251 (22.5%) | Likely Biden |
| Maine First District | 9989 (99.9%) | 11 (0.1%) | Safe Biden |
| Maine Second District | 766 (7.7%) | 9234 (92.3%) | Likely Trump |
| Maryland | 9998 (100%) | 2 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Massachusetts | 9999 (100%) | 1 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Michigan | 5138 (51.4%) | 4862 (48.6%) | Leans Biden |
| Minnesota | 7701 (77.0%) | 2299 (23.0%) | Likely Biden |
| Mississippi | 4 (0%) | 9996 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Missouri | 12 (0.1%) | 9988 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Montana | 6 (0.1%) | 9994 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska At Large | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska First District | 13 (0.1%) | 9987 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska Second District | 5058 (50.8%) | 4942 (49.2%) | Toss Up |
| Nebraska Third District | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nevada | 5162 (51.6%) | 4838 (48.4%) | Leans Biden |
| New Hampshire | 6739 (67.4%) | 3261 (32.6%) | Likely Biden |
| New Jersey | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Biden |
| New Mexico | 7535 (75.3%) | 2465 (24.7%) | Likely Biden |
| New York | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Biden |
| North Carolina | 4963 (49.6%) | 5037 (50.4%) | Toss Up |
| North Dakota | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Ohio | 1179 (11.8%) | 8821 (88.2%) | Likely Trump |
| Oklahoma | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Oregon | 9996 (100%) | 4 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Pennsylvania | 5083 (50.8%) | 4917 (49.2%) | Toss Up |
| Rhode Island | 9998 (100%) | 2 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| South Carolina | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| South Dakota | 3 (0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Tennessee | 8 (0.1%) | 9992 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Texas | 668 (6.7%) | 9332 (93.3%) | Likely Trump |
| Utah | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Vermont | 10000 (100%) | 0 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Virginia | 7848 (78.5%) | 2152 (21.5%) | Likely Biden |
| Washington | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Biden |
| West Virginia | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Wisconsin | 5169 (51.7%) | 4831 (48.3%) | Leans Biden |
| Wyoming | 0 (0%) | 10000 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Totals | 290 | 248 |
Overall statistics
- Final electoral votes:
- Joe Biden: 290 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 248 electoral votes
- Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
- Joe Biden: 279 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 259 electoral votes
- 2020 actual:
- Joe Biden: 306 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 232 electoral votes
- Odds of winning electoral college:
- Joe Biden: 59.76%
- Donald Trump: 39.47%
- Odds of winning popular vote:
- Joe Biden: 99.2%
- Donald Trump: 0.8%
The model predicted 49 out of 50 states correctly in the 2020 election, predicting only the state of Georgia wrong.