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Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions
Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast (view source)
Revision as of 17:49, 13 August 2024
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[[File:Civics prediction.png|800px|center]]
<center>''last updated August 13, 2024''</center>
==State highlights==
<center>
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! State
! Simulations Harris Won
! Simulations Trump Won
! Rank
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arizona
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4976 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5024 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Florida
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1657 (16.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8343 (83.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Georgia
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4963 (49.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5037 (50.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Iowa
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|441 (4.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9559 (95.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1095 (11.0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8905 (89.0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine At-Large
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8046 (80.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|1954 (19.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Michigan
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5014 (50.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4986 (49.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Minnesota
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7643 (76.4%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2357 (23.6%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nebraska Second District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5118 (51.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4882 (48.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Lean Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nevada
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5002 (50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4998 (50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Hampshire
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|6693 (66.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|3307 (33.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Mexico
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7372 (73.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2628 (26.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|North Carolina
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4828 (48.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5172 (51.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Leans Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Pennsylvania
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5018 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4982 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Texas
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|594 (5.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9406 (94.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Virginia
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7471 (74.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2529 (25.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Wisconsin
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5016 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4984 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
|}
</center>
==Overall statistics==
*Final electoral votes:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 276 electoral votes
**'''Donald Trump''': 262 electoral votes
*Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 272 electoral votes
**'''Donald Trump''': 266 electoral votes
*Odds of winning electoral college:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 52.54%
**'''Donald Trump''': 46.81%
*Odds of winning popular vote:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 97.4%
**'''Donald Trump''': 2.6%
==All states==
<center>
{| class="wikitable"
|-
!Totals!!276!!262!!
|}
</center>
==FAQ==
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