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Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions

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Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast (view source)

Revision as of 01:22, 16 August 2024

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[[File:Civics prediction.png|800px|center]]
<center>''last updated August 1315, 2024''</center>
 
==State highlights==
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arizona
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|49764968 (49.87%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|50245032 (50.23%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Florida
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|16572368 (1623.67%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|83437632 (8376.43%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Georgia
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|49634903 (49.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|50375097 (50.451%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Iowa
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|441449 (4.45%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|95599551 (95.65%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1095906 (119.01%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|89059094 (8990.09%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine At-Large
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|80468103 (8081.50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|19541897 (19.50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Michigan
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|50145094 (50.19%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|49864906 (49.91%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Minnesota
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|76437691 (76.49%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|23572309 (23.61%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nebraska Second District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|51185186 (51.29%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|48824814 (48.81%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Lean Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nevada
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|50025034 (50.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|49984966 (5049.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Hampshire
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|66936690 (66.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|33073310 (33.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Mexico
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|73727426 (7374.73%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|26282574 (2625.37%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|North Carolina
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|48284801 (48.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|51725199 (51.752%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Leans Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Pennsylvania
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|50185031 (50.23%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|49824969 (49.87%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Texas
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|594616 (56.92%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|94069384 (9493.18%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Virginia
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|74717485 (74.78%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|25292515 (25.32%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Wisconsin
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|50165019 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|49844981 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
 
*Odds of winning electoral college:
**'''Kamala Harris''': 52.547%
**'''Donald Trump''': 4647.813%
 
*Odds of winning popular vote:
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arizona
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|49764968 (49.87%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|50245032 (50.23%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Florida
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|16572368 (1623.67%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|83437632 (8376.43%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Georgia
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|49634903 (49.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|50375097 (50.451%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Iowa
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|441449 (4.45%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|95599551 (95.65%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9998 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-▼
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio▼
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1095 (11.0%)▼
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8905 (89.0%)▼
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump▼
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine At-Large
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|80468103 (8081.50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|19541897 (19.50%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine First District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|99889989 (99.89%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|1211 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Maine Second District
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|702719 (7.02%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|92989281 (9392.08%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Michigan
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|50145094 (50.19%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|49864906 (49.91%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Minnesota
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|76437691 (76.49%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|23572309 (23.61%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nebraska Second District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|51185186 (51.29%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|48824814 (48.81%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Lean Harris
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nevada
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|50025034 (50.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|49984966 (5049.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Hampshire
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|66936690 (66.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|33073310 (33.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9997 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
▲|-
▲| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio
▲| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1095906 (119.01%)
▲| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|89059094 (8990.09%)
▲| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Oklahoma
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Pennsylvania
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|50185031 (50.23%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|49824969 (49.87%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Texas
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|594616 (56.92%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|94069384 (9493.18%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Virginia
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|74717485 (74.78%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|25292515 (25.32%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Harris
|-
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Wisconsin
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|50165019 (50.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|49844981 (49.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
*Most recent 10 polls, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
*Historic Senate, House, and Presidential results going back to 1992, which help factor in emerging trends and partisan shifts.
*Historic polling errors within the state
*Presidential Primary turnout in the state
 
The state is ran through 10,000 election simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.
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