Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast
State highlights
| State | Simulations Harris Won | Simulations Trump Won | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 4968 (49.7%) | 5032 (50.3%) | Toss Up |
| Florida | 2368 (23.7%) | 7632 (76.3%) | Likely Trump |
| Georgia | 4983 (49.8%) | 5017 (50.2%) | Toss Up |
| Iowa | 449 (4.5%) | 9551 (95.5%) | Safe Trump |
| Ohio | 906 (9.1%) | 9094 (90.9%) | Likely Trump |
| Maine At-Large | 8103 (81.0%) | 1897 (19.0%) | Likely Harris |
| Maine Second District | 719 (7.2%) | 9281 (92.8%) | Likely Trump |
| Michigan | 5094 (50.9%) | 4906 (49.1%) | Toss Up |
| Minnesota | 7691 (76.9%) | 2309 (23.1%) | Likely Harris |
| Nebraska Second District | 5186 (51.9%) | 4814 (48.1%) | Lean Harris |
| Nevada | 5034 (50.3%) | 4966 (49.7%) | Toss Up |
| New Hampshire | 6690 (66.9%) | 3310 (33.1%) | Likely Harris |
| New Mexico | 7426 (74.3%) | 2574 (25.7%) | Likely Harris |
| North Carolina | 4801 (48%) | 5199 (52%) | Leans Trump |
| Pennsylvania | 5031 (50.3%) | 4969 (49.7%) | Toss Up |
| Texas | 616 (6.2%) | 9384 (93.8%) | Likely Trump |
| Virginia | 7485 (74.8%) | 2515 (25.2%) | Likely Harris |
| Wisconsin | 5019 (50.2%) | 4981 (49.8%) | Toss Up |
Overall statistics
- Final electoral votes:
- Kamala Harris: 276 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 262 electoral votes
- Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
- Kamala Harris: 272 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 266 electoral votes
- Odds of winning electoral college:
- Kamala Harris: 52.7%
- Donald Trump: 47.3%
- Odds of winning popular vote:
- Kamala Harris: 97.4%
- Donald Trump: 2.6%
All states
| State | Simulations Harris Won | Simulations Trump Won | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 6 (0.1%) | 9994 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Arkansas | 11 (0.1%) | 9989 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Alaska | 65 (0.7%) | 9935 (99.3%) | Safe Trump |
| Arizona | 4968 (49.7%) | 5032 (50.3%) | Toss Up |
| California | 9994 (99.9%) | 6 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| Colorado | 9919 (99.2%) | 81 (0.8%) | Safe Harris |
| Connecticut | 9980 (99.8%) | 20 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| Delaware | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| District of Columbia | 10000 (100%) | 0 (0%) | Safe Harris |
| Florida | 2368 (23.7%) | 7632 (76.3%) | Likely Trump |
| Georgia | 4983 (49.8%) | 5017 (50.2%) | Toss Up |
| Hawaii | 9988 (99.9%) | 12 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| Idaho | 12 (0.1%) | 9988 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Illinois | 9984 (99.8%) | 16 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| Indiana | 35 (0.3%) | 9965 (99.7%) | Safe Trump |
| Iowa | 449 (4.5%) | 9551 (95.5%) | Safe Trump |
| Kansas | 3 (0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Kentucky | 3 (0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Louisiana | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Maine At-Large | 8103 (81.0%) | 1897 (19.0%) | Likely Harris |
| Maine First District | 9989 (99.9%) | 11 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| Maine Second District | 719 (7.2%) | 9281 (92.8%) | Likely Trump |
| Maryland | 9997 (100%) | 3 (0%) | Safe Harris |
| Massachusetts | 9999 (100%) | 1 (0%) | Safe Harris |
| Michigan | 5094 (50.9%) | 4906 (49.1%) | Toss Up |
| Minnesota | 7691 (76.9%) | 2309 (23.1%) | Likely Harris |
| Mississippi | 5 (0.1%) | 9995 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Missouri | 8 (0.1%) | 9992 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Montana | 4 (0%) | 9996 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska At Large | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska First District | 15 (0.2%) | 9985 (99.8%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska Second District | 5186 (51.9%) | 4814 (48.1%) | Lean Harris |
| Nebraska Third District | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nevada | 5034 (50.3%) | 4966 (49.7%) | Toss Up |
| New Hampshire | 6690 (66.9%) | 3310 (33.1%) | Likely Harris |
| New Jersey | 9984 (99.8%) | 16 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| New Mexico | 7372 (73.7%) | 2628 (26.3%) | Likely Harris |
| New York | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| North Carolina | 4801 (48%) | 5199 (51%) | Lean Trump |
| North Dakota | 3 (0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Ohio | 906 (9.1%) | 9094 (90.9%) | Likely Trump |
| Oklahoma | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Oregon | 9984 (99.8%) | 16 (0.2%) | Safe Harris |
| Pennsylvania | 5031 (50.3%) | 4969 (49.7%) | Toss Up |
| Rhode Island | 9994 (99.9%) | 6 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| South Carolina | 9 (0.1%) | 9991 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| South Dakota | 4 (0%) | 9996 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Tennessee | 7 (0.1%) | 9993 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Texas | 616 (6.2%) | 9384 (93.8%) | Likely Trump |
| Utah | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Vermont | 9999 (100%) | 1 (0%) | Safe Harris |
| Virginia | 7485 (74.8%) | 2515 (25.2%) | Likely Harris |
| Washington | 9990 (99.9%) | 10 (0.1%) | Safe Harris |
| West Virginia | 0 (0%) | 10000 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Wisconsin | 5019 (50.2%) | 4981 (49.8%) | Toss Up |
| Wyoming | 0 (0%) | 10000 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Totals | 276 | 262 |
FAQ
How does it work?
The model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:
- The average "base odds" for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
- Most recent 10 polls, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
- Historic Senate, House, and Presidential results going back to 1992, which help factor in emerging trends and partisan shifts.
- Historic polling errors within the state
- Presidential Primary turnout in the state
The state is ran through 10,000 election simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.
Is it accurate?
Nope!
Why is there no chance of a electoral college tie?
The simulator currently marks any electoral college "tie" as a Trump victory, as the House of Representatives is majority Republican and thus will vote for Donald Trump should an electoral college tie occur.
2020 test
All states
| State | Simulations Biden Won | Simulations Trump Won | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 5 (0.1%) | 9995 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Arkansas | 6 (0.1%) | 9994 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Alaska | 233 (2.3%) | 9767 (97.7%) | Safe Trump |
| Arizona | 5045 (50.4%) | 4955 (49.5%) | Toss Up |
| California | 9997 (100%) | 3 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Colorado | 9819 (98.2%) | 181 (1.8%) | Safe Biden |
| Connecticut | 9984 (99.8%) | 16 (0.2%) | Safe Biden |
| Delaware | 9996 (100%) | 4 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| District of Columbia | 10000 (100%) | 0 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Florida | 2743 (27.4%) | 8343 (72.6%) | Likely Trump |
| Georgia | 4967 (49.7%) | 5033 (50.3%) | Toss Up |
| Hawaii | 9996 (100%) | 4 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Idaho | 7 (0.1%) | 9993 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Illinois | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Biden |
| Indiana | 31 (0.3%) | 9969 (99.7%) | Safe Trump |
| Iowa | 687 (6.9%) | 9313 (93.1%) | Likely Trump |
| Kansas | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Kentucky | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Louisiana | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Maine At-Large | 7749 (77.5%) | 2251 (22.5%) | Likely Biden |
| Maine First District | 9989 (99.9%) | 11 (0.1%) | Safe Biden |
| Maine Second District | 766 (7.7%) | 9234 (92.3%) | Likely Trump |
| Maryland | 9998 (100%) | 2 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Massachusetts | 9999 (100%) | 1 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Michigan | 5138 (51.4%) | 4862 (48.6%) | Leans Biden |
| Minnesota | 7701 (77.0%) | 2299 (23.0%) | Likely Biden |
| Mississippi | 4 (0%) | 9996 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Missouri | 12 (0.1%) | 9988 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Montana | 6 (0.1%) | 9994 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska At Large | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska First District | 13 (0.1%) | 9987 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Nebraska Second District | 5058 (50.8%) | 4942 (49.2%) | Toss Up |
| Nebraska Third District | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Nevada | 5162 (51.6%) | 4838 (48.4%) | Leans Biden |
| New Hampshire | 6739 (67.4%) | 3261 (32.6%) | Likely Biden |
| New Jersey | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Biden |
| New Mexico | 7535 (75.3%) | 2465 (24.7%) | Likely Biden |
| New York | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Biden |
| North Carolina | 4963 (49.6%) | 5037 (50.4%) | Toss Up |
| North Dakota | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Ohio | 1179 (11.8%) | 8821 (88.2%) | Likely Trump |
| Oklahoma | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Oregon | 9996 (100%) | 4 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Pennsylvania | 5083 (50.8%) | 4917 (49.2%) | Toss Up |
| Rhode Island | 9998 (100%) | 2 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| South Carolina | 2 (0%) | 9998 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| South Dakota | 3 (0%) | 9997 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Tennessee | 8 (0.1%) | 9992 (99.9%) | Safe Trump |
| Texas | 668 (6.7%) | 9332 (93.3%) | Likely Trump |
| Utah | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Vermont | 10000 (100%) | 0 (0%) | Safe Biden |
| Virginia | 7848 (78.5%) | 2152 (21.5%) | Likely Biden |
| Washington | 9992 (99.9%) | 8 (0.1%) | Safe Biden |
| West Virginia | 1 (0%) | 9999 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Wisconsin | 5169 (51.7%) | 4831 (48.3%) | Leans Biden |
| Wyoming | 0 (0%) | 10000 (100%) | Safe Trump |
| Totals | 290 | 248 |
Overall statistics
- Final electoral votes:
- Joe Biden: 290 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 248 electoral votes
- Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
- Joe Biden: 279 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 259 electoral votes
- 2020 actual:
- Joe Biden: 306 electoral votes
- Donald Trump: 232 electoral votes
- Odds of winning electoral college:
- Joe Biden: 59.76%
- Donald Trump: 39.47%
- Odds of winning popular vote:
- Joe Biden: 99.2%
- Donald Trump: 0.8%
The model predicted 49 out of 50 states correctly in the 2020 election, predicting only the state of Georgia wrong.