Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions

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Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast (view source)

Revision as of 21:50, 13 August 2024

7,691 bytes added ,  13 August
→‎FAQ
VisualWikitext
 
===Is it accurate?===
Maybe. Obviously, there's no real way to know until election day. I tested the model with the 2020 Presidential Election and came out with the following results (note that election data from 2022 and 2020 was excluded from this simulation for obvious reasons):
I have no idea lol
 
===2020 test===
====All states====
<center>
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! State
! Simulations Biden Won
! Simulations Trump Won
! Rank
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Alabama
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9995 (99.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arkansas
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|6 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9994 (99.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Alaska
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|233 (2.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9767 (97.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Arizona
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5045 (50.4%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4955 (49.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|California
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9997 (100%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|3 (0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Colorado
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9819 (98.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|181 (1.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Connecticut
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9984 (99.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|16 (0.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Delaware
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9996 (100%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4 (0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|District of Columbia
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|10000 (100%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|0 (0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Florida
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|2743 (27.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8343 (72.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Georgia
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4967 (49.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5033 (50.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Hawaii
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9996 (100%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4 (0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Idaho
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|7 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9993 (99.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Illinois
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9992 (99.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Indiana
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|31 (0.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9969 (99.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Iowa
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|687 (6.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9313 (93.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Kansas
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|2 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9998 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Kentucky
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|2 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9998 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Louisiana
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|2 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9998 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine At-Large
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7749 (77.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2251 (22.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maine First District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9989 (99.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|11 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Maine Second District
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|766 (7.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9298 (92.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Maryland
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9998 (100%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2 (0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Massachusetts
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9999 (100%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|1 (0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Michigan
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5138 (51.4%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4862 (48.6%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Leans Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Minnesota
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7701 (77.0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2299 (23.0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Mississippi
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9996 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Missouri
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|12 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9988 (99.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Montana
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|6 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9994 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Nebraska At Large
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9999 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Nebraska First District
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|13 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9987 (99.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nebraska Second District
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5058 (50.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4942 (49.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Nebraska Third District
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9999 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Nevada
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5162 (51.6%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4838 (48.4%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Leans Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Hampshire
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|6739 (67.4%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|3261 (32.6%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Jersey
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9992 (99.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New Mexico
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7535 (75.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2465 (24.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|New York
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9992 (99.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|North Carolina
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|4963 (49.6%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|5037 (50.4%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|North Dakota
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|2 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9998 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Ohio
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1179 (11.8%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8821 (88.2%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Oklahoma
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9999 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Oregon
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9996 (100%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4 (0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Pennsylvania
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5083 (50.8%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4917 (49.2%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Toss Up
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Rhode Island
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9998 (100%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2 (0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|South Carolina
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|2 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9998 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|South Dakota
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|3 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9997 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Tennessee
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|8 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9992 (99.9%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Texas
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|668 (6.7%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9332 (93.3%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Likely Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Utah
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9999 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Vermont
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|10000 (100%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|0 (0%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Virginia
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|7848 (78.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|2152 (21.5%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Likely Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Washington
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|9992 (99.9%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|8 (0.1%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Safe Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|West Virginia
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|1 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9999 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Wisconsin
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|5169 (51.7%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|4831 (48.3%)
| bgcolor=#B0CEFF|Leans Biden
|-
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Wyoming
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|0 (0%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|10000 (100%)
| bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump
|-
|- style="text-align:center;"
!Totals!!290!!248!!
|}
</center>
 
====Overall statistics====
*Final electoral votes:
**'''Joe Biden''': 290 electoral votes
**'''Donald Trump''': 248 electoral votes
 
*Average electoral votes per 10,000 simulations:
**'''Joe Biden''': 275 electoral votes
**'''Donald Trump''': 263 electoral votes
 
*Odds of winning electoral college:
**'''Joe Biden''': 55.22%
**'''Donald Trump''': 43.94%
 
*Odds of winning popular vote:
**'''Joe Biden''': 99.2%
**'''Donald Trump''': 0.8%
 
The model predicted 49 out of 50 states correctly in the 2020 election, predicting only the state of Georgia wrong.
Retrieved from "https://computernewb.com/wiki/Special:MobileDiff/4333"

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