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Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions
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Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast (view source)
Revision as of 03:54, 13 August 2024
, 13 Augustno edit summary
(Created page with "test {| class="wikitable" |- ! State ! Simulations Harris Won ! Simulations Trump Won ! Rank |- | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Alabama | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|6 (0.1%) | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9994 (99.9%) | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump |- | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arkansas | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|11 (0.1%) | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9989 (99.9%) | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump |- | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Alaska | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|65 (0.7%) | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|9935 (99.3%) | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Safe Trump |- | bgcolor=#FFB6B6|Arizona |...") |
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==FAQ==
===How does it work?===
Calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:
*The average base odds for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
*Most recent 10 polls from at least a "B-rated" pollster, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
*Historic Senate and Presidential results going back to 1992, as well as factoring in emerging trends and historic partisan shifts.
*Presidential Primary turnout.
These are then ran through 10,000 simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.
===Is it accurate?===
I have no idea lol
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