Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions

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Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast (view source)

Revision as of 03:54, 13 August 2024

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==FAQ==
===How does it work?===
CalculatesThe model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:
*The average base odds for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
*Most recent 10 polls from at least a "B-rated" pollster, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
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