Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions

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Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast (view source)

Revision as of 22:30, 13 August 2024

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*The average base odds for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
*Most recent 10 polls from at least a "B-rated" pollster, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
*Historic Senate, House, and Presidential results going back to 1992, aswhich wellhelp as factoringfactor in emerging trends and historic partisan shifts.
*Presidential Primary turnout.
 
These are then ran through 10,000 simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.
 
===Is it accurate?===
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