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Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast: Difference between revisions
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Civics 2024 US Presidential Election Forecast (view source)
Revision as of 22:34, 13 August 2024
, 13 August→How does it work?
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===How does it work?===
The model calculates how likely a state is to vote for a candidate based on several factors:
*The average "base odds" for a state, calculated using five different forecast models (Cook, Sabato, RCP, FiveThirtyEight, and JHK Forecasts) as well as Polymarket's betting odds.
*Most recent 10 polls from at least a "B-rated" pollster, including approval rating polls of the current president, favorability polls of the incumbent president, Democratic nominee, and Republican nominee, and state-by-state match-up polls.
*Historic Senate, House, and Presidential results going back to 1992, which help factor in emerging trends and partisan shifts.
*Presidential Primary turnout
The state is ran through 10,000 election simulations using the "Monte Carlo" method.
===Is it accurate?===
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